Terrorism across the globe has taken a new meaning post the 9/11 attacks on the twin towers in the US. The in-famous Al Qaeda once know as one of the most globalized terrorist organization is losing its shine post the assassination of Osama Bin Laden and capture of some of the middle and senior leadership in the cohort. US intelligence has spent years tracking down the world's most influential terrorist organization. Out of 48 terrorist organizations identified by the US intelligence, Al Qaeda is the only organization that has a global presence and rest all have a domestic agenda. However during the period, Al Qaeda did strengthen its presence by affiliating with terrorist groups in Egypt, Algeria, Somalia, Libya, and now Syria. For about a decade and half , right from its existence, this strategy of merger and acquisition did work for the group. But what has changed in the last decade or so is the change in ideologies and the definition of terrorism among the affiliates. The core of Al Qaeda has always been US focused but the affiliates, who sprung to life in the last decade and leadership changes in some of the old terrorist organizations have redefined their mission and have secured different ideologies for themselves. Most of the affiliates now have a local agenda and are failing to align with the core of Al Qaeda in fighting against the western world. The focus is also seen to be changing from concentrating on western world to strengthening communities (Shiite v/s Sunnis). However what Al Qaeda has done to the terrorist organizations in the Middle East is establishing the need for securing the Arab Peninsula.
After its establishment in the late 80s, Al Qaeda under the leadership of Laden strengthened itself as a global Jihadist group by recruiting and training. The group was motivated by hatred and resilience against US and its allies in particular Israel. Laden was successful in building a safe haven in Afghanistan and training camps in Pakistan. He was instrumental in pumping enormous amount of money to carry out operations and new tactics came to design the attacks. Laden was also the leading force in tie-ups with terrorist groups in Northern African countries that were resource rich and thus helped the group in funding its operations. However post the demise of Laden, and demolition of the safe havens in Afghanistan, the motive of Al Qaeda has changed to securing a safe haven for training and continuing operations and winning the faith of Arab world. Part of the reason was because of what happened in Iraq. Al Qaeda setup Iraqi operations in 2004 with an aim of eradicating the US supported Shiite population and bringing in the the Sunni regime but in the course many civilians died. The guerrilla war tactic employed by Al Qaeda during their resistance in Iraq was highly condemned by its affiliates. This to a large extent has troubled the group in wining the confidence of the Arab peninsula and also its affiliates. In the past, most of the affiliates, even if they were linked to the core of Al Qaeda, had a local fight in addition to contributing the the parent group. However this is changing in the recent past with the terrorist organization in Libya and Tunisia discovering the confusion this multiple agenda is leading them to. The groups in Algeria and Somalia are facing continued strikes from military from Ethiopia and neighboring countries and forced to concentrate on their sustenance than to follow the parent organization. The decade has also seen the progress in the Middle East with a few countries such as Egypt and Tunisia marching towards democracy while uncertainty prevailing in Libya and continued protests in Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. But what this has meant to Al Qaeda is drought in funds and freeze of recruitment because the affiliates no longer share the similar thought process as Al Qaeda. Jihad for a long time has been expensive and for any mammoth operation such as the 9/11 to work will require extensive investment and the terrorist organization is unable to plan for any such attacks. In addition, the group is losing support from its affiliates who are busy with operations in their own country. In a way the independent business units (affiliates) have their own business strategy and is not aligned to the corporate strategy (Al Qaeda). This just goes to show that the competitive advantage of Al Qaeda over its peers (affiliates) was its leadership and sheer planning and probably the affiliates now feel that the global terrorist group has lost its advantage after the demise of Laden and some of his associates. In addition, the core competence of Al Qaeda for a long time was planning and executing massive attacks and this required huge financial assistance. Now with disintegration of the terrorist group, drought of funding mechanisms, and lack of strong leadership, the affiliate organizations started to feel that the once competence of the parent group is now slowly shading away.
Change in strategy
Much has changed in the last decade. Once upon a time, Laden used to group his men in Kandahar and offer training for even today Al Qaeda men are considered one of the best when it comes to operations planning and implementation. However over the course of time, due to problems discovered above, the group started remote communication and use of multimedia and internet has surfaced. So today, the possible recruit in to the group could be from anywhere in the world as long as the individual shares the common hatred for the western influence in the Arab world. Iraq and Algeria for almost half a decade were the funding and operational ground for Al Qaeda but post 2010, the group is on a look out for locations similar to Iraq. Northern Africa has its own problems with military from Ethiopia and Nigeria countering terrorism in Somalia and so the terrorist group in Somalia that was once considered to be the closest affiliate to Al Qaeda is struggling to maintain its presence domestically. The terrorist organizations in Egypt believe that the road to Jerusalem has to be through Cairo so in other words, they started to believe that before countering the world, they will need to succeed in their home country. Probably this has also forced Al Qaeda in changing its focus from being US centric to region centric. Currently Al Qaeda is looking at Syria however the different rebel groups within the FSA (Free Syrian Army) share different ideologies and definition of Jihad. Some of them are pro and a few anti Al Qaeda after what happened in Iraq. So it will be hard to say if Al Qaeda will be successful in this strategy however there are close to hundreds of Al Qaeda terrorists in the rebel group and this could be seen from the recent change in tactics adopted by the rebels (suicide bombings and car bombs, which were tactics designed by Al Qaeda during their efforts in Iraq). In the recent past, Al Qaeda has been instrumental in getting its people from neighboring countries such as the Iran and Lebanon to support the ongoing fight against the Syrian Military. So the group is gaining recognition but it is still far from gaining any ground in Syria. Involvement of Al Qaeda in Syria could also be a reason why US is not very open in supporting the conflicts in Syria.
It is very clear that the strategy of Al Qaeda has changed from centralization to decentralization and making the affiliates powerful however it is hard to believe that the group is able to inspire and control its allies. This was possible during the Laden leadership but is fast dying. It is also very clear that Al Qaeda is losing its focus and the values on which it was setup for now its main aim is to creating a ground for itself. It is also clear that we might not see any more massive attacks such as the 9/11 however terrorism post 9/11 has grown so much that it pretty much spans across eastern Europe, the entire Middle East, the Northern Africa, and Pakistan. Even more so these groups are gaining strength day by day and have different values for their existence. I think we have reached a stage where countering terrorism is out of possibility and all that super powers can do is to understand their involvement and safe guard their interest. This is largely because, we are in a world where "one size fits all" is no longer working and this is applicable to eradicating terrorism as well. As of the local governments, we are likely to see more and more struggles in these deprived economies for no one knows what the solution is.
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