Newspapers and TV channels claim that the Arab spring has brought about a seismic change in the middle east however for me this clash of civilizations has been in place much before the so called "Arab Spring". The fight between the Shia Muslims and Sunni Muslims has been in place from the time Prophet Mohammed left the world without a will stating who his successor will be. The Shiites believed that his son-in-law - Ali - would be an appropriate candidate to lead where as the Sunnis felt that Prophet's long time friend and Father-in-law - Abu Baker - should be the successor So the fight between these two civilizations is not new. If not on the streets, the two sects have been fighting in their minds.
However the Iraq war made this rift appear on the streets. Even today many believe that Iraq would have been much better under the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein relative to what it is today. The social landscape of this region (Middle East) is such that 80 percent of the population constitute the Sunnis and only 10 to 15 percent constitute the Shiites and the rest are Christians who are sparsely population in Egypt and Lebanon. In fact it makes me wonder how Bahrain is part of the GCC when it has about 70 percent of its population belonging to the Shiite sect. With exception of Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, and to some extent Lebanon, other countries in the Middle East have a Sunni population that way over rides the Shiite population.
For e.g. Saudi Arabia has 95 percent Sunni population and 5 percent Shiite population, Turkey has 85 percent Sunni population and 15 percent Shiite population, Qatar has 86 percent Sunni population and 14 percent Shiite population, and Egypt is unique in its way that it hardly has any Shiites living in the country - 90 percent of its population comprises of Sunni Muslims and the remaining 10 percent constitute the Christians. On the other hand, Iran has 90 percent Shiite population and 9 percent Sunni population, and Iraq has 63 percent Shiite population and 34 percent Sunni population.
US attacked Iraq on the basis that it is going to bring about balance and equality in the economy and many of the Middle Eastern countries supported this act even though the Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq was a hard line Sunni regime. Egypt has hardly any Shiite population so the fight here again is not against any particular belief but against the dictatorial regimes. The same goes with Syria where the so claimed "Sunni believers" (although I don't see any traces of the same - I have written about this in my previous post) are fighting against the Assad led Shiite regime not because of any particular beliefs rather more to do with the dictatorial-ship of the regime. So it largely boils down to defining what the Arab spring is all about - for me Arab spring is not about the fight between the Shiite and Sunni population but more to do with freedom. With more and more people in the region getting western education, this was no surprise coming. People in the region want to adapt to modern habitats and and as a result are suppressing the regimes to offer such environments. The movement in Saudi Arabia where the government is forced to allow Women to drive and vote is a classical example of an Arab spring uprising. In this fight for freedom and equality of living, regional countries are supporting each other although with different motives. So as a result, the fight in the region constitutes of varied sects with their own agenda. If the region were to be left on its own, we might see some resolution and if not resolution, at least some calmness. However with the involvement of USA, Russia, and China, the situation is likely to head nowhere.
Now the time has arisen where the uprising has got in to the minds of the people and unless they see some outcome to the struggle, they are not going to stop the agitation. But I am only concerned that this so called Arab Spring is moving somewhere that is not getting defined! However this has opened up a lot of avenues for the business community. The agitation has brought in need for essential healthcare, meeting the food shortage and nutrition, gearing up on the social and infrastructure, and more importantly the stock markets in many of these markets have tumbled thus making the companies cheaper (companies are available at relatively at low P/E than those in developed markets and Asia) to buy. In addition, the currency depreciation in countries such as Turkey has opened up lot more opportunities for Private Equity. I think in years to come, the political and cultural agitation is going to invite a lot more FDI however I am not sure if the common man really wants this!
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